Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Chicago White Sox 10-6 at Sloan Park on March 1, 2024, in a game that was competitive through four innings before a pivotal fifth frame swung the outcome decisively. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Cubs holding a 54% home win probability, and while that edge narrowed momentarily as the White Sox surged, the model's estimate ultimately settled at 100% by game's end. Chicago's run totals tell much of the story: the Cubs plated five runs in the fifth inning alone, then added two more in the sixth and one in the eighth to put the game well out of reach.

The fifth inning was the turning point, and Owen Caissie was its central figure. After the White Sox briefly seized momentum with Paul DeJong's double off Javier Assad and Dominic Fletcher's follow-up double off the same pitcher — a sequence that added +12.5% and +11.8% win probability for the White Sox respectively — the Cubs answered with a massive bottom half. Caissie's home run off Cole Duensing delivered the single largest win-probability swing of the game at +34.7%, effectively flipping the contest in Chicago's favor. Yan Gomes added a single off Touki Toussaint that contributed another +12.8%, and David Bote's walk against Jesse Chavez in the fourth had already set an early tone at +13.4%.

Caissie finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting +34.7% and +2.7 respectively. Kevin Pillar contributed +17.8% WPA and +1.4 RE24, while Gomes closed out the top three with +16.7% WPA and +1.3 RE24. On the pitching side, Julian Merryweather led Cubs relievers at +7.3% WPA, followed by Michael Kopech at +6.7% and Dominic Leone at +5.4%, as the Cubs bullpen effectively closed out the White Sox over the final innings.