Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 on March 1, 2024, at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of home win probability climbing from 54% before the game to 100% at its conclusion. Detroit's offense was largely quiet through the first five innings, but a three-run sixth inning proved decisive, turning what had been a scoreless home half of the game into a commanding lead that Philadelphia never recovered from.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the sixth, when Ryan Kreidler connected on a home run off Phillies reliever Ryan Burr that shifted win probability by 23.3 percentage points in Detroit's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Parker Meadows followed with another home run off Burr, adding a further 15.3 percentage points to Detroit's advantage and effectively closing out the competitive portion of the contest. Detroit added a run in the seventh to push the lead to four. Philadelphia mounted a faint threat in the ninth against Keider Montero, with a Carlos De La Cruz fielders choice accounting for a run and a 10.2-point swing, but strikeouts and pop outs from Marcus Lee Sang and Cody Roberts ended the rally, costing the Phillies 9.0 and 8.4 percentage points respectively.

On the individual ledger, Kreidler led all batters with a WPA of plus-22.3 and an RE24 of plus-1.4, while Meadows posted plus-16.7 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. Leandro Pineda also contributed positively at plus-12.3 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 for Detroit. On the mound, Ranger Suarez led Phillies pitchers with a plus-15.1 WPA mark, while Detroit's Luis Ortiz and Joey Wentz contributed plus-13.0 and plus-11.5 respectively in support of a pitching effort that held Philadelphia to two runs on nine hits despite committing two errors in the field.