San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the San Diego Padres 4-3 on March 1, 2024, at American Family Fields of Phoenix, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at 54 percent in favor of Milwaukee and closing at 100 percent. The Padres struck first with a two-run second inning, but Milwaukee answered with a run of its own, and the game remained tight through six innings before the Brewers seized control with two runs in the seventh. San Diego pushed back with a run in the eighth, yet Milwaukee's response in that same half-inning ultimately sealed the outcome.

The most consequential stretch of the contest unfolded across the seventh and eighth innings. Owen Miller's single off Adam Mazur in the bottom of the seventh registered a win-probability swing of plus-18.6 percent, and Brock Wilken's walk added another plus-13.7 percent, doing the groundwork for Milwaukee's go-ahead runs. In the top of the eighth, Cal Mitchell delivered a triple off Tobias Myers that represented the single largest swing of the night at plus-26.9 percent, momentarily tightening the contest, but Tyler Wade's pop out immediately reversed that momentum by minus-22.9 percent. Brewer Hicklen then put the game away in the bottom half with a home run off Alek Jacob, a plus-21.4 percent swing that pushed Milwaukee's probability to a near-certain level.

Mitchell led all position players with a plus-27.1 percent WPA and a plus-1.1 RE24, though his triple ultimately went to waste. Hicklen finished at plus-19.8 percent WPA and Miller at plus-18.6 percent, with both contributing directly to the deciding runs. On the mound, Ryan Bergert paced Brewers pitchers at plus-14.7 percent WPA, followed by Bryse Wilson at plus-12.6 percent and Drew Thorpe at plus-11.7 percent, as Milwaukee's staff limited San Diego to three runs on ten hits despite allowing an error.