Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies played to a 6-6 tie on March 1, 2024, at BayCare Ballpark, a game that saw Philadelphia erase a three-run deficit in dramatic fashion before the contest ended without a winner. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Philadelphia holding a 54 percent home win probability, but a series of late swings reshaped the game entirely before the model settled at zero percent — reflecting the tied outcome.

Miami built a 4-0 lead through the first three innings, adding single runs in the first, second, and third frames, but Philadelphia began its comeback in the sixth when Scott Kingery hit a home run off Devin Smeltzer, a swing the DiamondIQ model measured at plus 15.2 percent win probability and that contributed to Kingery's game-leading RE24 of plus 2.3. The Phillies added two more runs in the eighth on a Cam Gallagher home run off Kent Emanuel, a blow worth plus 24.2 percent win probability by the model's estimate and part of what made Gallagher the second-most impactful batter on the night at plus 31.0 percent WPA and plus 2.1 RE24. Two strikeouts in that same inning — Bryan Rincon fanning against Elvis Alvarado for minus 19.9 percent and William Simoneit going down against Emanuel for minus 13.7 percent — kept Miami briefly in control heading to the ninth.

David Dahl delivered the defining moment of the game when he hit a walk-off tying home run off Elvis Alvarado in the bottom of the ninth, a swing the DiamondIQ model calculated at plus 47.1 percent win probability and the single largest play of the contest. Dahl finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 46.0 percent to go with a plus 0.9 RE24. On the pitching side, Jesús Luzardo was the most effective arm by the model's measure, finishing at plus 22.6 percent WPA for Miami, with Darren McCaughan and Declan Cronin each contributing modestly in support.