Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

Colorado rallied past Seattle 10-9 on March 1, 2024, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, surviving a five-run third inning from the Mariners to claim a chaotic spring training contest. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Colorado holding a 54 percent home win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent, reflecting just how thoroughly the Rockies controlled the late innings despite Seattle's persistent pressure.

The decisive swings in this game were concentrated in the third and sixth innings. Seattle appeared to seize control in the top of the third, when Josh Rojas delivered a double off John Curtiss that shifted win probability by plus 19.1 percent, and Ty France followed with a single off Curtiss worth another plus 14.1 percent, fueling the Mariners' five-run frame. Colorado answered with its own pivotal sixth-inning burst: Michael Toglia laced a double off Ty Buttrey worth plus 13.8 percent, and Jordan Beck added a triple off Buttrey that moved the needle another plus 10.1 percent. Rojas had already countered with a home run off Jaden Hill in the top of the sixth worth plus 13.6 percent, making that inning the fulcrum on which the game turned. In the end, Colorado's 16-hit attack proved too much for the Mariners to overcome.

Rojas was the game's most impactful individual performer regardless of result, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 32.0 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.6, a remarkable total from the losing side. For Colorado, Toglia led the way at plus 15.2 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, with Brendan Rodgers contributing plus 12.2 percent WPA and plus 0.4 RE24. On the mound, Kyle Freeland paced Rockies pitchers at plus 9.2 percent WPA, followed by Evan Justice at plus 8.5 percent and Jake Bird at plus 6.3 percent, a trio of arms that kept Seattle from completing what would have been a late comeback.