Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Cincinnati Reds 12-8 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 1, 2024, piling up 18 hits while Cincinnati's three errors contributed to their undoing. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Cincinnati holding a 54 percent win probability, a figure that eroded steadily as Arizona built its advantage through the middle innings and reached zero by the final out. The D-backs scored in six of nine innings, including a three-run seventh and a two-run ninth, while the Reds' four-run ninth came too late to matter.

The game's decisive swing arrived in the bottom of the fifth, when Josh Harrison grounded into a double play against Joe Mantiply, a play that shifted win probability by negative 15.9 percent against Cincinnati and effectively extinguished a potential rally. Harrison had already cost the Reds in the third inning, hitting into a forceout off Dakota Chalmers that erased another 8.6 percent of their win equity. On the Arizona side, the fourth inning was the offensive centerpiece: Kyle Garlick launched a home run off Carson Spiers worth 11.2 percent in win probability added, and Corbin Carroll followed with a double that added another 8.8 percent. Garlick had also gone deep in the second inning against Brandon Williamson for 7.9 percent WPA, establishing his offensive tone early.

Garlick finished as Arizona's top performer by a wide margin, posting 18.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.6 across his two home runs. Luke Maile contributed 14.3 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24, while Carroll added 9.2 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 to round out the D-backs' most impactful bats. On the pitching side, Christian Montes De Oca and Mantiply each added 5.6 percent WPA for Arizona, with Ryan Thompson contributing 5.2 percent as the bullpen helped close out the win.