Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 8-4 on March 1, 2024, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, turning what opened as a relatively even contest into a convincing home win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 54 percent pre-game probability for New York climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out, with the game's decisive shift arriving in the second inning when the Yankees erupted for six runs to seize control.

The bottom of the second was where the game was effectively decided. Anthony Rizzo delivered the highest-impact swing of the night, connecting for a home run off Juan Nunez that added 21.5 percent to New York's win probability. Everson Pereira followed later in the inning with a home run of his own, this time off Chad Dallas, pushing the Yankees' probability another 13.1 percent and leaving Toronto with little room to recover. The Blue Jays had actually grabbed a 2-0 lead after the top of the first, aided in part by a Giancarlo Stanton flyout in the home half that cost New York 6.8 percent win probability, but the six-run outburst in the second erased that deficit entirely. Juan Soto added a home run off Chad Green in the fourth, a swing worth 5.8 percent in win probability that further extended the Yankees' advantage.

Rizzo finished as the game's top performer by WPA, accumulating 26.2 percent in win probability added and a RE24 of plus-4.6. Pereira was second at plus-12.4 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Soto contributed plus-8.4 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. On the pitching side, Dennis Santana led New York's staff with plus-6.2 percent WPA, followed by Luke Weaver at plus-3.5 percent and Jordan Romano at plus-2.6 percent. Toronto finished with ten hits but committed two errors, and the model leaned heavily toward New York from the second inning onward.