Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

The Kansas City Royals defeated the Oakland Athletics 5-4 on March 1, 2024, at Surprise Stadium in a game that turned on a pair of dramatic ninth-inning sequences. Kansas City entered with a 54% pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and the Royals built what appeared to be a comfortable cushion through eight innings, scoring twice in the first, once in the third, and once in the fifth while holding Oakland scoreless until the late innings. The Athletics finished with 11 hits against seven for Kansas City, but Oakland's two errors ultimately proved costly in the deciding moments.

Oakland mounted a serious threat in the ninth, with Hoy Park delivering a double off Steven Cruz that swung win probability 28.4 points in the Athletics' favor, and Tyler Soderstrom following with another double that added another 14.7 points, pulling Oakland within striking distance. Max Muncy had earlier provided the Athletics' first spark with a home run off Jake Brentz in the eighth that moved the needle 10.9 points, cutting into the Kansas City lead. However, Muncy's strikeout to end the top of the ninth off Cruz represented a 10.9-point swing back toward Kansas City, leaving Oakland's rally incomplete heading into the bottom half.

Kansas City answered immediately in the bottom of the ninth when a field error off Tyler Ferguson on a Javi Vaz plate appearance delivered the winning run, a play worth 28.4 points of win probability that pushed the model's estimate to 100% in favor of the Royals. Park finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-35.5% with a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Vaz contributed plus-28.4% and Soderstrom posted the highest RE24 among position players at plus-1.5 despite finishing with plus-17.6% WPA. On the pitching side, Cole Ragans led Kansas City's staff with a plus-12.6% WPA contribution, supported by Angel Zerpa at plus-9.4%.