Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the San Diego Padres 5-3 at Peoria Stadium on March 1, 2024, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way down to zero. The Angels scored in four separate innings, building their lead methodically before putting the game away with a two-run sixth inning and an insurance run in the eighth. On the pitching side, Jack Kochanowicz was the game's most impactful arm, generating a model-leading plus-23.0 percent win probability contribution, with Kenny Rosenberg adding another plus-12.9 percent in support.

The decisive stretch of the game came in the sixth inning, when Miguel Sano and Logan O'Hoppe hit back-to-back home runs off Tom Cosgrove, each swing worth plus-13.7 and plus-13.6 percent in win probability respectively. Those two blows represented the clearest momentum shift of the afternoon and gave Los Angeles a cushion it would not surrender. Sano finished as the second-most impactful batter by win probability at plus-15.7 percent with a plus-1.0 RE24, while Tim Locastro led all position players in RE24 at plus-1.9 despite his plus-13.4 percent WPA ranking third among hitters.

The Angels added a final run in the top of the eighth on a Richie Martin Jr. single off Nick Hernandez, a hit that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-16.8 percent, lifting Martin to the top of the batting WPA leaderboard. The Padres' best chance to claw back had come in the fourth, when an Ehire Adrianza double-play groundout off Wandy Peralta erased a potential Angels threat and swung win probability 15.2 percent in San Diego's favor, though it ultimately proved insufficient. Carson Fulmer closed things out in the ninth, aided by a Michael De La Cruz groundout that added plus-14.4 percent to the Angels' final margin.