Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies shut out the Toronto Blue Jays 5-0 at TD Ballpark on February 29, 2024, flipping the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Toronto to zero by the final out. The game remained scoreless through four innings before the Phillies began pulling away with a Trea Turner single off Connor Cooke in the fifth that added 10.3 percent to Philadelphia's win probability. The decisive blow came in the sixth, when Cristian Pache homered off Hayden Juenger, a swing worth 13.5 percent in win probability that effectively put the game out of reach. The Phillies piled on in the seventh against Jimmy Burnette, with a Cal Stevenson fielders choice adding 7.1 percent and a Nick Podkul walk contributing another 6.5 percent as Philadelphia pushed its lead to five runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubled off Yunior Marte in the bottom of the sixth for Toronto's most impactful moment at plus 8.8 percent, but the Blue Jays could not convert any of their four hits into runs.

On the individual ledger, Pache led all batters with a plus 14.0 WPA and plus 0.9 RE24, while Matt Kroon and Turner each finished at plus 0.8 RE24 and contributed 8.4 and 7.2 WPA respectively. The pitching staff was equally dominant, with Mitch White pacing the group at plus 11.0 WPA, closely followed by Kolby Allard at plus 10.9 WPA. Yunior Marte added plus 7.5 WPA despite surrendering the Guerrero double, as Philadelphia's collective effort held Toronto to four hits across nine innings and kept the Blue Jays off the scoreboard entirely.