San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Oakland Athletics 5-3 at Hohokam Stadium on February 29, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win falling from 54% before first pitch to 0% by the final out. The outcome turned decisively in the fourth inning, which served as the game's fulcrum in both directions. Graham Pauley delivered the single biggest play of the afternoon, a triple off Gerson Moreno that swung win probability 16.9 percentage points in San Diego's favor, and Luis Campusano followed with a double off Joe Boyle worth an additional 12.9 points. Oakland responded in the bottom half, with Lawrence Butler and Carlos Pérez each lashing doubles off Enyel De Los Santos to claw back 9.1 and 8.7 points respectively, but the Athletics never recaptured the lead. The line score confirms how lopsided the inning-by-inning damage was: San Diego plated four runs in the fourth while Oakland managed two, and neither team scored again until a Padres insurance run arrived in the seventh.

By final WPA accounting, Pauley was the game's most impactful offensive player at plus-22.1%, backed by a RE24 of plus-2.0 that reflected his direct run-scoring contribution. Campusano finished at plus-10.0% WPA with a RE24 of plus-0.8. Jacob Wilson's groundout to end the ninth registered as the second-highest single-play swing at plus-14.4 points from Oakland's vantage point, closing out his line at plus-10.1% WPA, though his RE24 of minus-0.3 underscored that the at-bat added probability without producing a run. On the mound, San Diego's bullpen carried the model's favor throughout the back half, with Woo-Suk Go leading all pitchers at plus-13.3% WPA, Matt Festa contributing plus-8.8%, and Adrian Morejon adding plus-7.9%. The Padres finished with six hits and no errors against Oakland's seven hits and one error, a clean defensive performance that complemented a pitching staff that held firm once the fourth-inning lead was secured.