San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the San Francisco Giants 2-1 on February 29, 2024, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at 54 percent in favor of the home side and finishing at 100 percent after a tense final inning that ultimately fell short for San Francisco.

The decisive stretch of the game came in the top of the ninth, where the Giants mounted a late threat against Ricky Karcher that briefly shifted the probability landscape before Arizona closed the door. Trenton Brooks opened the inning with a single that swung win probability 21.2 percent toward San Francisco, the single largest swing of the game, and Chase Pinder followed with a walk that added another 10.6 percent. Those two plays represented the Giants' best chance to tie or take the lead, but Karcher responded by inducing a flyout from Wade Meckler that erased 10.1 percent of San Francisco's newly gained leverage, and he finished off the threat with a fielders choice out by Blake Sabol and a strikeout of Cooper Hummel, costing the Giants 20.3 and 16.6 percent respectively. The two early Arizona runs, both scored in the first inning, proved to be all the offense the Diamondbacks needed.

Karcher earned the strongest WPA mark among pitchers at plus-15.2 percent for his ninth-inning work, while Humberto Castellanos and Chris Rodriguez also contributed positively with marks of plus-12.2 and plus-10.8 percent respectively. On the offensive side, Brooks led all batters at plus-21.2 percent WPA and plus-0.6 RE24, with Pinder second at plus-10.6 percent and plus-0.4 RE24. Jancarlos Cintron added plus-7.8 percent WPA as well. Arizona's error-free defensive performance, holding the Giants to one run on five hits, complemented the pitching staff's collective effort in securing the one-run victory.