MLB Recap · February 28, 2024

Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

DET5
Final
PIT3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET000010220580
PIT003000000350

The Story

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-3 on February 28, 2024, at LECOM Park, handing Pittsburgh a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 54% chance of winning. Detroit's offense was quiet through the first six innings before erupting with five runs across the seventh and eighth, ultimately swinging the model's final win probability entirely in the visitors' favor at 0% for Pittsburgh.

The decisive stretch came in the eighth inning, where Anthony Bemboom and Wenceel Pérez each homered off Dauri Moreta, adding 20.3% and 18.0% in win probability respectively and effectively sealing the outcome. Pittsburgh's best moment had come earlier, when Tsung-Che Cheng's third-inning home run off Alex Lange generated a 16.2% swing in the Pirates' favor and accounted for all three Pittsburgh runs in that frame. Eddys Leonard's double in the seventh off Josh Fleming also proved critical, contributing a 15.8% win-probability shift that helped Detroit begin pulling away. Pittsburgh's best hope to claw back dissipated when Jack Brannigan grounded out in the eighth off Trey Wingenter, a play that cost the Pirates 16.4% in win probability.

Wenceel Pérez led all batters with a combined 24.0% WPA and 1.4 RE24, while Bemboom posted 20.3% WPA alongside a 1.0 RE24 mark. Tsung-Che Cheng was the standout for Pittsburgh, generating 14.6% WPA and 1.4 RE24 despite coming out on the losing side. On the mound, Trey Wingenter paced Detroit's pitching staff with a 13.3% WPA contribution, supported by Andrew Vasquez at 9.8% and Jared Jones at 7.8%, as the Tigers' bullpen held Pittsburgh scoreless after the third inning.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalPIT win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Anthony Bemboom Home Run
Top 8th · off Dauri Moreta
+20.3%
Wenceel Pérez Home Run
Top 8th · off Dauri Moreta
+18.0%
Jack Brannigan Groundout
Bot 8th · off Trey Wingenter
-16.4%
Tsung-Che Cheng Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Alex Lange
+16.2%
Eddys Leonard Double
Top 7th · off Josh Fleming
+15.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Wenceel Pérez+24.0%+1.4 RE24
Anthony Bemboom+20.3%+1.0 RE24
Tsung-Che Cheng+14.6%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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