Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-3 on February 28, 2024, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game giving the home side a 54% chance of winning and closing at 100% in Washington's favor. The Nationals built their lead in stages, scoring twice in the third inning and twice more in the fifth, while Boston managed two runs in the second and one in the sixth before falling short in the final frame. Washington finished with nine hits and committed three errors, while Boston collected seven hits and one error.

The decisive swing moments centered on the third and fifth innings for Washington and on a late Boston threat that ultimately fell apart. Jesse Winker's single in the bottom of the third was the game's second-biggest play by win probability, adding 15.5 percentage points to Washington's chances off Zack Kelly. Joey Gallo then extended that cushion with a double in the fifth off Jorge Benitez, a swing worth plus 12.2 percentage points. Boston's most meaningful moment came in the top of the ninth, when Tyler McDonough singled off Joe La Sorsa to nudge the Red Sox's chances upward by 20.4 percentage points, but Nick Decker's subsequent strikeout against the same pitcher erased 13.8 points of that momentum and effectively ended the rally.

Among individual performers, McDonough led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus 26.8% and a RE24 of plus 1.0, though his contributions came too late to alter the outcome. Winker and Gallo each posted RE24 figures of plus 1.6, underscoring their importance in building Washington's margin when it mattered most. On the mound, Joe La Sorsa was the model's top-rated pitcher at plus 25.9% WPA despite allowing the McDonough single, with Josh Winckowski contributing plus 11.9% WPA in support of the Nationals' staff effort.