Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

Toronto held off Tampa Bay 3-2 at TD Ballpark on February 28, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving the Blue Jays a 54% win probability and closing at 100% after a tense ninth inning resolved in Toronto's favor. The game was scoreless through four innings before Tampa Bay broke through in the fifth, when Amed Rosario doubled off Trevor Richards to generate an 11.1% swing in win probability for the Rays. Toronto answered in the sixth, with Santiago Espinal singling off Enmanuel Mejia for a 13.8% swing that helped knot the game, and the Blue Jays added another run in the seventh to take a lead they would not relinquish.

The ninth inning produced the sharpest single sequence of win-probability movement in the game. Tampa Bay mounted a threat against T.J. Brock, and Kameron Misner drew a walk that shifted the Rays' win probability by 15.2%. However, Ruben Cardenas followed with a pop out that cost Tampa Bay 14.6%, and Dom Keegan's ground ball into a double play swung the outcome by 26.3% in Toronto's favor, effectively sealing the result. Brock finished the game as one of Toronto's top pitching contributors with a 15.2% WPA, behind Andrew Bash, who led all pitchers at plus 19.1%, and Devereaux Harrison at plus 11.0%.

Among position players, Misner led Tampa Bay with a plus 14.1% WPA and 0.5 RE24 despite the Rays' loss, reflecting how close the ninth inning came to extending the game. Espinal paced Toronto's offensive contributors at plus 10.8% WPA and 0.6 RE24, with Rosario close behind at plus 10.0% and 0.6 RE24. Tampa Bay finished with just two hits against a Toronto staff that limited damage throughout, and the Blue Jays' two errors were ultimately inconsequential given the final margin.