San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Chicago White Sox 3-1 on February 28, 2024, at Camelback Ranch, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game giving the White Sox a 54 percent chance of winning at home. That probability eroded steadily before collapsing entirely by the final out, as San Diego used a critical seventh-inning surge to seize control of a game that had been scoreless through six.

The decisive moment came in the top of the seventh when Brett Sullivan connected on a home run off Sammy Peralta, a swing that shifted win probability by 30.6 percent in San Diego's favor and stood as the single largest play of the afternoon. The White Sox had an opportunity to answer in the bottom half, but Peyton Burdick grounded into a double play off Stephen Kolek, swinging win probability 20.8 percent against Chicago and effectively extinguishing the rally before it started. Matthew Batten's double play earlier in the seventh, costing the Padres 13.2 percent in win probability, was ultimately overshadowed by Sullivan's blast. Chicago's Carlos Pérez was retired on strikes by Steven Wilson in the eighth, a sequence that moved the needle another 18.7 percent toward San Diego, and Tim Elko's strikeout against Jeremiah Estrada in the ninth closed out the final threat.

Sullivan finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-36.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.5. On the pitching side, Steven Wilson led all arms with a WPA of plus-23.3 percent, while Matt Waldron contributed plus-12.0 percent and Stephen Kolek added plus-9.7 percent. The White Sox managed four hits against three for San Diego, but two errors and an inability to convert opportunities in the late innings left them on the wrong side of a 3-1 final.