MLB Recap · February 28, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

LAD4
Final
TEX6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD000020110481
TEX00002040-6101

The Story

The Texas Rangers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 at Surprise Stadium on February 28, 2024, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered giving the home side a 54% win probability. The Rangers ultimately closed at 100% in the model's estimate, with the decisive action concentrated in the fifth and seventh innings. The Dodgers drew first blood in the top of the fifth when Andy Pages hit a home run off Josh Sborz, a swing that added 22.2% to Los Angeles's win probability and stood as the single most impactful offensive play of the game for the visitors. Texas answered immediately in the bottom half, as Travis Jankowski's single off Joe Kelly pushed Rangers runners home and added 11.4% to Texas's win probability, knotting the contest at two apiece through six.

The seventh inning proved to be the turning point that broke the game open in Texas's favor. Trailing by a run entering the frame, the Rangers mounted a four-run rally against Elieser Hernández that effectively decided the outcome. Elier Hernandez delivered a triple that added 26.3% to the home team's win probability, the single largest swing of the entire game. Cam Cauley followed with his own triple off Hernández, contributing an additional 12.7%, and Texas took a lead it would not relinquish. A potential Dodger comeback bid faded in the top of the eighth when Griffin Lockwood-Powell grounded into a double play off Jonathan Holder, a sequence that cost Los Angeles 16.2% in win probability.

Among the top performers by the DiamondIQ model's WPA accounting, Andy Pages led all batters at plus-37.5% with a RE24 of plus-2.9, making him the most impactful individual hitter despite finishing on the losing side. Elier Hernandez paced the Rangers offensively at plus-23.4% WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Travis Jankowski added plus-16.6% WPA and plus-1.2 RE24 in support of the Texas effort. On the pitching side, Jacob Latz and Ryan Brasier each contributed plus-7.1% WPA for Texas, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto adding plus-6.7% in a solid outing for Los Angeles despite the defeat.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalTEX win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Elier Hernandez Triple
Bot 7th · off Elieser Hernández
+26.3%
Andy Pages Home Run
Top 5th · off Josh Sborz
+22.2%
Griffin Lockwood-Powell Grounded Into DP
Top 8th · off Jonathan Holder
-16.2%
Cam Cauley Triple
Bot 7th · off Elieser Hernández
+12.7%
Travis Jankowski Single
Bot 5th · off Joe Kelly
+11.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Andy Pages+37.5%+2.9 RE24
Elier Hernandez+23.4%+1.8 RE24
Travis Jankowski+16.6%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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