Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

Arizona closed out a come-from-behind 8-6 win over Cleveland at Goodyear Ballpark on February 28, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had initially framed as a 54 percent home-win probability for the Guardians. The Diamondbacks trailed for much of the game, managing only three runs through eight innings while Cleveland built its advantage, but a four-run ninth inning against Juan Zapata proved decisive. Kevin Graham's single in the top of the ninth was the single largest swing of the game, lifting Arizona's win probability by 40.0 percent, and Caleb Roberts followed with a triple that added another 32.8 percent, effectively sealing the outcome. By the final out, the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cleveland victory had collapsed to zero.

The Guardians had their own chances to extend the lead in the sixth inning, when Alexfri Planez delivered a single off Konnor Pilkington that shifted Cleveland's win probability by 14.4 percent, the same figure attached to Planez's flyout against Conor Grammes in the bottom of the ninth as the Guardians made a final push that fell short. Kyle Garlick's double off Scott Barlow in the top of the fourth, worth 13.3 percent in win probability, had been Arizona's most consequential offensive contribution before the late eruption.

Among individual performers, Graham finished as the game's top contributor by WPA at plus-37.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Roberts posted plus-30.6 percent and an identical RE24 figure. Planez led Cleveland's side at plus-28.5 percent WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Tommy Henry was Arizona's most valuable arm at plus-12.2 percent WPA, followed by Eli Morgan at plus-7.2 percent and Kyle Nelson at plus-6.8 percent, as the Diamondbacks bullpen held Cleveland in check long enough for the offense to rally.