Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs handed the Milwaukee Brewers a 6-1 defeat on February 28, 2024, at American Family Fields of Phoenix, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Milwaukee to zero by the final out. Chicago scored in the first and fourth innings before breaking the game open with a four-run sixth, effectively ending any realistic path to a Brewers comeback. Milwaukee's lone run came in the bottom of the fifth on a William Contreras double off Caleb Kilian, a swing that registered a +9.4 percent win-probability addition for the home side but proved to be an isolated bright spot in an otherwise one-sided afternoon.

The sixth inning was the decisive sequence, with Harold Chirino unable to contain a Cubs lineup that strung together three consecutive impactful hits. Owen Caissie led off the damage with a single that added 11.7 percent to Chicago's win probability, Luis Vázquez followed with a single worth 10.6 percent, and Pablo Aliendo capped the inning's key stretch with a double contributing another 10.5 percent. Earlier, Alexander Canario had delivered a single off Enoli Paredes in the fourth that added 10.3 percent to Chicago's chances, steadily tightening the grip before the sixth-inning surge made it definitive.

Caissie finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-16.3 percent, while Vázquez posted the strongest RE24 among position players at plus-2.0, reflecting his efficiency in advancing and driving in runners. On the mound, Jordan Wicks was the standout performer with a game-best plus-17.6 percent WPA, supported by J.B. Bukauskas at plus-4.8 percent and Jared Koenig at plus-4.3 percent as the Cubs bullpen held the Brewers scoreless after the fifth. Chicago finished with 11 hits against Milwaukee's 8, and the model's lean throughout the final innings reflected the complete command Chicago maintained over the contest.