MLB Recap · February 28, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

STL0
Final
NYM3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL000000000050
NYM00011010-391

The Story

The New York Mets shut out the St. Louis Cardinals 3-0 on February 28, 2024, at Clover Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets victory climbing from a 54 percent pre-game probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. New York scored one run in each of the fourth, fifth, and seventh innings, never surrendering the lead after taking it in the fourth. St. Louis managed five hits but never threatened seriously enough to shift momentum, finishing with a clean error column that nonetheless masked an offense that went quietly against a Mets pitching staff that kept Cardinals hitters off balance throughout.

The decisive offensive sequence began in the bottom of the fourth when Pete Alonso hit a home run off JoJo Romero, a swing that added 11.4 percent to New York's win probability and gave the Mets the game's first run. Trayce Thompson followed with a solo home run of his own in the fifth, this one off Kyle Leahy, shifting the model an additional 10.6 percent in New York's favor and effectively putting the Cardinals in a two-run deficit with limited opportunities remaining. Jett Williams added to the cushion in the seventh with a single off Max Rajcic that moved the needle another 7.3 percent. On the St. Louis side, a double play grounded into by Moisés Gómez in the ninth off Wilkin Ramos cost the Cardinals 6.3 percent in win probability, underscoring how few genuine scoring chances the visitors generated.

Among individual performers, Trayce Thompson led all batters with a WPA of plus-12.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.2, narrowly edging Pete Alonso, who posted plus-11.9 percent WPA and the same RE24 figure. Jett Williams contributed plus-7.3 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 to round out New York's most impactful offensive contributors. On the mound, Trey McLoughlin was the most valuable Mets pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, generating plus-13.6 percent WPA, with Peyton Battenfield adding plus-12.1 percent and Miles Mikolas contributing plus-6.7 percent in a collective shutout effort.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalNYM win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Pete Alonso Home Run
Bot 4th · off JoJo Romero
+11.4%
Trayce Thompson Home Run
Bot 5th · off Kyle Leahy
+10.6%
Jett Williams Single
Bot 7th · off Max Rajcic
+7.3%
Moisés Gómez Grounded Into DP
Top 9th · off Wilkin Ramos
-6.3%
Alfonso Rivas III Hit By Pitch
Top 7th · off Trey McLoughlin
+6.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Trayce Thompson+12.3%+1.2 RE24
Pete Alonso+11.9%+1.2 RE24
Jett Williams+7.3%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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