Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies played to a 7-7 tie on February 28, 2024, at BayCare Ballpark, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Phillies win sitting at 54% before first pitch and ultimately resolving to zero percent as neither club secured a victory. Philadelphia jumped out to a three-run first inning and largely controlled the flow of the game through the middle frames, adding a pair of runs in the fourth on an Aramis Garcia single off Hayden Harris that carried a win-probability swing of plus 11.3 percent, and then two more in the sixth. Atlanta's most impactful individual blow prior to the ninth came from Michael Harris II, whose home run off Nick Nelson in the third inning added 10.5 percent to the Braves' win probability and kept the deficit manageable.

The ninth inning proved to be the game's defining sequence. Atlanta entered the frame trailing and facing Austin Brice, and Nacho Alvarez Jr. drew a walk that swung win probability by plus 21.9 percent, the single largest shift of the contest. Luis Liberato's strikeout against Brice immediately pushed 13.9 percent of that equity back toward Philadelphia, but Bryson Horne subsequently clubbed a home run off Brice worth plus 8.9 percent, capping a three-run rally that knotted the score at seven. From there the game ended without a winner.

Among position players, Nacho Alvarez Jr. finished as the top contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting plus 27.0 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24, while Bryson Horne added plus 13.7 percent WPA and a team-best plus 2.0 RE24. Aramis Garcia paced Philadelphia's offense with plus 17.9 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24. On the mound, Matt Strahm led Phillies relievers at plus 7.3 percent WPA, followed by Seranthony Dominguez at plus 6.4 percent and Ken Giles at plus 5.2 percent.