Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-2 on February 27, 2024, at Ed Smith Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 54 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent. The game was effectively decided in the bottom of the fifth inning, when Baltimore erupted for four runs off Tigers reliever Devin Sweet. James McCann delivered the most consequential blow of the afternoon, a double that shifted win probability by plus 22.2 percent, representing the single largest swing of the game. A fielding error credited to Heston Kjerstad added another 12.8 percent in Baltimore's favor during that same frame, and Coby Mayo extended the damage with a double of his own worth plus 9.1 percent. Detroit had briefly answered in the top of the fifth on a Keston Hiura triple off Nick Vespi that swung the needle 17.5 percent toward the Tigers, but the Orioles' response was swift and decisive.

Baltimore's offensive foundation was laid as early as the third inning, when Daniel Johnson tripled off Sean Guenther to generate a plus 9.5 percent win-probability swing and a RE24 of plus 1.5, finishing the game as the third-most impactful batter at plus 14.8 percent WPA overall. McCann led all hitters with plus 22.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Hiura's plus 17.4 percent WPA stood as the lone meaningful Tiger contribution at the plate. On the mound, Detroit's Matt Manning was the most effective pitcher by WPA at plus 12.1 percent, followed by Baltimore's Keagan Gillies at plus 8.8 percent and Alex Pham at plus 6.9 percent. The Tigers finished with two errors against none for Baltimore, a disparity that compounded the damage in the decisive fifth and left the final line at 5-2 in favor of the home side.