Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs played to a 6-6 tie on February 27, 2024, at Sloan Park, a spring training result that ended with the DiamondIQ model's estimate dropping from a 54 percent pregame home win probability to zero, reflecting the deadlocked finish. Cincinnati held a 3-0 lead entering the eighth inning before Chicago erupted for four runs in the bottom half, only to see the Reds answer with three more in the top of the ninth to retake what appeared to be a decisive advantage heading into the final frame.

The swing in fortune was most dramatically concentrated in the bottom half of those two innings. Pete Crow-Armstrong was the central figure, both the biggest villain and the biggest hero for the Cubs. In the eighth, his grounding into a double play off Owen Holt represented a 21.6 percent swing against Chicago, a pivotal out that temporarily stalled the Cubs rally. Then in the ninth, facing Jake Gozzo with the Cubs trailing by three, Crow-Armstrong delivered a two-run double that shifted win probability by 48.8 percent in Chicago's favor, the single most consequential play of the game. Bryce Windham contributed a single off Gozzo worth 13.6 percent, while a sacrifice fly from Luis Vazquez actually cost the Cubs 13.1 percent in win probability, leaving the tying run stranded and the game ending level.

Crow-Armstrong finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-35.2 percent despite the eighth-inning double play, with Christian Franklin adding plus-22.7 percent largely on the strength of a walk drawn off Carson Rudd in the eighth that kept the rally alive. On the pitching side, Owen Holt led all arms at plus-17.3 percent, followed by Connor Phillips at plus-11.7 percent and Frankie Montas at plus-9.5 percent, a trio that largely kept Cincinnati's late-game surge from being more damaging.