Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins played to a 3-3 tie on February 27, 2024, at Lee Health Sports Complex, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving Minnesota a 54 percent chance of winning before settling at zero as the game ended without a decision. Philadelphia scored first in the third inning on a Trea Turner double off Josh Staumont, then added two more in the seventh when David Dahl hit a home run off Cody Laweryson, a swing that shifted win probability by 19.8 points in the Phillies' favor. Minnesota had fallen behind in that sequence and trailed entering the bottom of the ninth, but the Twins rallied for three runs to force the tie.

The decisive moment of the game came in the bottom of the ninth when Willie Joe Garry Jr. singled off Brett Schulze, a hit that carried a win-probability swing of plus 39.1 percent and ultimately proved to be the most impactful single play of the afternoon. Garry finished as the top performer by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus 45.7 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.7. Misael Urbina also contributed a flyout in the ninth that moved Minnesota's probability by plus 14.0 percent, though his overall line came in at plus 8.1 percent WPA. On the negative side of the ledger, Alex Kirilloff grounded into a double play in the sixth against Orion Kerkering, costing Minnesota 11.9 percent in win probability.

Kerkering was the top-performing Phillies pitcher by WPA at plus 7.9 percent, with José Ruiz and Cristopher Sánchez each adding contributions above six percent. The Phillies finished with six hits and three runs while committing no errors, matching Minnesota's error-free afternoon. The Twins collected eight hits in the draw, and the model leans toward viewing the ninth-inning rally as the game's defining sequence, erasing what had been a two-run Philadelphia advantage built across the middle innings.