Washington Nationals at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals handled the Houston Astros decisively on February 27, 2024, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, winning 10-3 behind a dominant seven-run third inning that effectively ended the contest early. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Houston a 54% win probability as the home side, but by the time the third inning concluded, that figure had been erased entirely, finishing at 0% for the Astros.

The third inning was the defining sequence of the afternoon. Joey Meneses delivered the biggest single play of the game, a fielders choice off Dylan Coleman that shifted win probability by 15.2 percentage points in Washington's favor, and he finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 14.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.3. Dylan Crews followed with a double off Drew Strotman worth 10.8 percentage points, closing out the day at plus 9.8 WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.4, the highest run-expectancy figure among position players. James Wood contributed an 8.4-point swing with a walk against Coleman, finishing at plus 8.2 WPA, while Robert Hassell III added a home run off Strotman for an additional 5.9-point boost. Houston's best moment came a half-inning earlier, when Mauricio Dubón's flyout against Zach Davies cost the Nationals 4.2 percentage points, though it proved inconsequential given what followed.

On the mound, Zach Davies was Washington's standout, posting a plus 6.7 WPA to lead all pitchers, while José Urquidy contributed plus 2.9 WPA in relief. The Nationals finished with 11 hits and committed no errors, whereas Houston was charged with three errors across the game, contributing to the lopsided final. Washington outscored the Astros 10-3, with the bulk of the damage concentrated in that third-inning explosion.