Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handled the Miami Marlins 7-1 at Clover Park on February 27, 2024, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected emphatically, moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The contest was relatively quiet through the first two innings before Tristan Gray gave Miami a foothold in the third with a home run off Jorge López, a swing worth plus-10.5 percent in win probability from the DiamondIQ model's estimate. New York answered immediately as Tyrone Taylor's single off Yonny Chirinos in the bottom half shifted momentum back toward the Mets, adding 9.3 percent to their win probability and knotting the offensive ledger for the inning.

The Mets steadily pulled away in the middle frames. Alex Ramírez delivered a double off Josh Simpson in the bottom of the fifth that represented the game's single largest positive swing, adding 14.3 percent to New York's win probability, though that same inning was partially blunted when Jose Iglesias grounded into a double play, costing the Mets 9.2 percent. Ji Man Choi then put the game further out of reach with a home run off Declan Cronin in the sixth, a blow worth plus-12.2 percent. New York's seven-run total was punctuated by a four-run seventh inning that sealed matters entirely.

Choi finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a plus-15.5 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Ramírez and Tristan Gray added plus-9.5 and plus-8.5 percent respectively. On the pitching side, Nate Lavender led New York's staff with plus-7.3 percent WPA, followed closely by Dedniel Núñez at plus-7.2 percent and A.J. Puk at plus-6.7 percent. The Mets logged eight hits against Miami's seven, with each club committing one error in a game the home side controlled from the third inning onward.