Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 8-3 on February 26, 2024, at American Family Fields of Phoenix, overcoming the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 54 percent home win probability to leave no doubt by the final out. The Reds generated their offense in bursts, with the third and fifth innings serving as the decisive stretches that effectively ended Milwaukee's chances.
The fifth inning was the game's turning point. Stuart Fairchild launched a home run off Evan McKendry that shifted win probability by 19.8 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Elly De La Cruz followed with a double off McKendry that added another 14.0 percent, a two-play sequence that collectively swung the game by nearly 34 percentage points and pushed Cincinnati's three-run fifth-inning lead to an insurmountable advantage. The Reds had already done damage in the third, where De La Cruz notched a single off Abner Uribe worth 11.4 percent in win probability and Tyler Callihan contributed a double off Uribe that added 6.4 percent. Milwaukee responded briefly in the third when Eric Haase singled off Christian Roa to produce a 10.5 percent swing, but the Brewers could not sustain any consistent offensive pressure.
De La Cruz finished as the game's most impactful player, posting a combined WPA of plus 25.4 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.2, his contributions spanning both the third and fifth innings. Fairchild added plus 15.1 percent WPA and Callihan contributed plus 13.5 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 1.7. On the pitching side, Nick Martinez led Reds contributors at plus 6.7 percent WPA, with Robert Gasser at plus 5.7 percent and Casey Legumina at plus 5.6 percent helping close out the game cleanly for Cincinnati.