Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays handed the Baltimore Orioles an 8-3 defeat on February 26, 2024, at Ed Smith Stadium, erasing what the DiamondIQ model's estimate had pegged as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Baltimore and running that figure all the way to zero by the final out. The Rays posted eight runs on eleven hits and committed no errors, while the Orioles managed only six hits and were hurt by two of their own errors across a game that turned decisively in the middle innings.

The pivotal blow came in the top of the third inning, when Junior Caminero drove a home run off Cionel Pérez, a swing the DiamondIQ model calculated as the single largest win-probability shift of the game at plus 24.3 percent. That hit, combined with three additional runs in the frame, gave Tampa Bay a four-run advantage it never relinquished. Baltimore answered briefly in the bottom of the seventh when Daniel Johnson connected for a home run off Enmanuel Mejia, a plus-15.8 percent swing that tightened the deficit momentarily, and Tyler Nevin had already provided the Orioles their only other notable surge with a second-inning home run off Trevor Martin worth plus-14.0 percent. However, the Rays responded with a two-run eighth inning anchored by Carson Williams's double off Kyle Brnovich, which added 18.2 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability, followed by a Kenny Piper single that added another 9.3 percent.

By WPA, Caminero finished as the game's top offensive performer at plus-23.4 percent with an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Williams contributed plus-17.2 percent and a plus-1.0 RE24. On the pitching side, Justin Armbruester led all Rays arms with a plus-12.9 percent WPA contribution, supported by Trevor Brigden at plus-7.5 percent and Edwin Uceta at plus-6.6 percent, a collective performance that kept Baltimore's offense in check through the final innings.