Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Atlanta Braves 2-1 at CoolToday Park on February 26, 2024, handing Atlanta a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 54 percent home win probability for the Braves. Baltimore scored all of its runs via the long ball, with Jordan Westburg's solo home run off Reynaldo López in the fourth inning opening the scoring and providing an 11.6 percent win probability swing in the Orioles' favor. Kyle Stowers added another solo shot in the seventh, this one off Dylan Lee, pushing Baltimore's advantage in win probability by 14.5 percent and extending the lead to 2-0.
Atlanta's most significant moment came in the bottom of the eighth when Forrest Wall connected on a home run off Jean Pinto, a swing worth 18.8 percent in win probability that brought the Braves within one run and injected life into the home half of the inning. However, Luke Williams immediately extinguished that momentum, grounding into a double play off the same pitcher — a sequence that shifted win probability by 27.3 percent against Atlanta and effectively ended the Braves' best threat of the evening. Nolan Hoffman then closed the door in the ninth, striking out Alejo Lopez to end the game, a result the DiamondIQ model valued at a 27.0 percent win probability swing in Baltimore's favor as the final out was recorded.
Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Alejo Lopez led all batters with a 22.9 percent WPA despite being the final out, a reflection of the leverage of that ninth-inning plate appearance. Forrest Wall's home run made him Baltimore's top offensive contributor at plus-18.8 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, while Westburg's fourth-inning blast registered plus-15.0 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. On the mound, Andrew Suárez was the most impactful arm of the afternoon, posting plus-16.7 percent WPA, with Matt Krook and J.J. Niekro each contributing plus-6.8 percent as Baltimore's pitching staff held Atlanta to a single run on four hits.