MLB Recap · February 26, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

LAD9
Final
COL4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD1300000509121
COL001200100481

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Colorado Rockies 9-4 on February 26, 2024, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, finishing with a 12-hit, one-error performance that steadily eroded what had been a competitive game through the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Colorado holding a 54% win probability, but the Dodgers chipped away early — scoring once in the first and three times in the second — before Los Angeles blew the game open with a five-run eighth inning that pushed the Rockies' final win probability to 0%.

The decisive swing came in the top of the eighth when Ryan Ward doubled off Thomas Ponticelli, a hit that added 17.5 percentage points to the Dodgers' win probability and served as the single most impactful at-bat of the game. Drew Avans followed with a single off the same pitcher, adding another 11.2 percentage points and all but closing the door on any Colorado comeback. On the Colorado side, Elias Díaz had provided the game's second-largest individual swing with a fourth-inning home run off Gus Varland, a blast worth plus-16.7 percentage points that briefly kept the Rockies within striking distance. Drew Romo also contributed a double in the seventh off Eduardo Salazar, adding 10.6 percentage points, but Colorado's offensive moments proved insufficient to overcome the Dodgers' accumulating advantage.

Among individual performers, Díaz led all batters with a WPA of plus-18.4 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Ward posted plus-16.1 WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. On the mound, Nabil Crismatt led Dodgers pitchers with plus-8.3 WPA, aided in part by Brenton Doyle's second-inning forceout that swung minus-11.2 percentage points away from Colorado, and Stephen Gonsalves contributed plus-7.9 WPA as Los Angeles used its bullpen effectively to protect the lead through nine innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalCOL win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ryan Ward Double
Top 8th · off Thomas Ponticelli
+17.5%
Elias Díaz Home Run
Bot 4th · off Gus Varland
+16.7%
Drew Avans Single
Top 8th · off Thomas Ponticelli
+11.2%
Brenton Doyle Forceout
Bot 2nd · off Nabil Crismatt
-11.2%
Drew Romo Double
Bot 7th · off Eduardo Salazar
+10.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Elias Díaz+18.4%+1.8 RE24
Ryan Ward+16.1%+1.2 RE24
Drew Avans+11.2%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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