Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| KC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | 6 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals handled the Chicago Cubs 6-0 on February 26, 2024, at Surprise Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Kansas City win climbing from a pre-game 54 percent probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Kansas City produced 10 hits against a Cubs squad that managed just 6 and committed one error, and the Royals did their most decisive damage in the opening inning, never relinquishing control after that.
The biggest single swing in win probability came from Nick Pratto's first-inning home run off Hayden Wesneski, a play that added 6.2 percent to Kansas City's win probability and set the tone for the afternoon. The Royals added a run in the second, then tacked on additional insurance in the sixth and seventh innings to push the final margin to six. On the Cubs side, Luis Vázquez was responsible for the two costliest offensive moments, a strikeout against Seth Lugo in the second inning that cost Chicago 8.4 percent win probability and a grounded-into-double-play against Luis Cessa in the fourth that shed another 8.3 percent, making him the central figure in Chicago's inability to generate any momentum.
Among the standout performers, Pratto led all batters with a WPA of plus-6.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.8, while Mike Brosseau contributed plus-5.2 percent WPA and Nick Madrigal added plus-4.1 percent. On the mound, Seth Lugo was the most impactful arm, generating plus-9.2 percent WPA, followed by Luis Cessa at plus-7.0 percent and Tyler Duffey at plus-3.5 percent. The DiamondIQ model favors the Royals' pitching staff as the primary driver of the outcome, with Lugo and Cessa combining to neutralize Chicago's lineup at its most consequential moments.