MLB Recap · February 26, 2024

Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

HOU0
Final
DET4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
HOU000000000021
DET00100300-470

The Story

The Detroit Tigers shut out the Houston Astros 4-0 on February 26, 2024, at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium, with all four runs coming in a decisive sixth inning that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a competitive game to a near-certain Detroit victory. Houston managed just two hits and committed one error on the afternoon, while Detroit's pitching staff held the Astros off the board entirely across nine innings.

The sixth inning was where the game was effectively decided. Brady Allen's home run off Julio Robaina added 11.7% to Detroit's win probability, the single biggest play of the contest, and Jake Holton followed with a double off Robaina that added another 9.1%. On the Houston side of that same inning, Joey Loperfido and Trey Cabbage each struck out against Joey Wentz, costing the Astros 11.5% and 10.2% in win probability respectively, while Colin Barber's walk added 8.2% for Houston as the only positive moment in an otherwise fruitless frame for the visitors. The Astros never recovered from the combined collapse on offense and the inability to slow Detroit's rally.

Among the standout performers, Allen led all batters with a 11.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Dixon Machado contributed 9.4% WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.8, and Holton added 9.1% WPA. On the mound, Beau Brieske led Detroit's pitching staff with 12.2% WPA, followed by Wentz at 10.2% and Aaron Brown at 9.8%. The DiamondIQ model opened with Detroit as a modest 54% favorite at home and finished at 100% as the Tigers' pitching and a concentrated burst of sixth-inning offense left Houston without an answer.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025HOU bats firstFinalDET win %HOU win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Brady Allen Home Run
Bot 6th · off Julio Robaina
+11.7%
Joey Loperfido Strikeout
Top 6th · off Joey Wentz
-11.5%
Trey Cabbage Strikeout
Top 6th · off Joey Wentz
-10.2%
Jake Holton Double
Bot 6th · off Julio Robaina
+9.1%
Colin Barber Walk
Top 6th · off Joey Wentz
+8.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Brady Allen+11.7%+1.3 RE24
Dixon Machado+9.4%+0.8 RE24
Jake Holton+9.1%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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