Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox edged the Atlanta Braves 5-4 on February 25, 2024, at CoolToday Park, completing a comeback that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win at 0% after entering the day with Atlanta holding a 54% pre-game probability. Boston scored twice in the second and third innings to build a 4-0 lead through three, before Atlanta answered with three runs in the fourth and one in the fifth to pull ahead 4-4, setting up a tense finish that came down to a single run in the top of the ninth.
The swing plays told the story of how tightly contested the final innings became. Jordan Luplow's double in the bottom of the fourth shifted win probability by plus 20.7 points in Atlanta's favor as the Braves mounted their comeback against Joe Jacques. But the most consequential moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Alejo Lopez's flyout against Gabriel Jackson — with Atlanta threatening — represented a plus 31.6 point swing for Boston, effectively sealing the outcome. Tyler Miller contributed a key groundout in the top of the ninth off Grant Holmes, adding plus 12.7 points to Boston's win probability and helping manufacture the go-ahead run.
Among individual performers, Alejo Lopez led all players with a plus 32.4 WPA, while Tyler Miller finished at plus 24.2 WPA and Jordan Luplow posted plus 18.7 WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.7, reflecting his direct run-production impact. On the pitching side, Brayan Bello paced the Red Sox staff at plus 11.9 WPA, with Brendan Cellucci and Jake McSteen each contributing over plus 10 points, a collective effort that proved just enough to preserve the narrow road victory.