San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres shut out the Chicago Cubs 7-0 on February 25, 2024 at Sloan Park, holding Chicago to just three hits while committing no errors of their own against a Cubs team that made three. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Chicago a 54% win probability as the home side, but that figure eroded steadily through the early innings before reaching 0% by the final out, a reflection of how thoroughly San Diego controlled the contest from the opening frame.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the second inning, when Tyler Wade's strikeout against Blake Whitney carried a 5.9% win-probability swing in San Diego's favor, followed immediately by Jackson Merrill's single off Javier Assad that added another 5.0%. Those plays helped the Padres build on the 1-0 lead they had established in the first and extend it to 3-0 through two. On the Chicago side, Alexander Canario's groundout against Randy Vásquez in the bottom of the second represented the game's single largest win-probability shift at minus-8.8%, while Yan Gomes's lineout in the first had already cost the Cubs 4.5% in probability. José Azócar then put the game firmly out of reach in the top of the fourth with a home run off Edwin Escobar, a swing worth 7.0% in win probability that pushed San Diego to 4-0.

Azócar finished as the game's top offensive contributor, posting a combined WPA of plus-11.4% and a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Merrill added plus-5.5% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24. On the mound, Randy Vásquez was the standout performer with a WPA of plus-16.2%, the highest mark of any player on either side, supported by Jeremiah Estrada at plus-4.9% and Adam Mazur at plus-4.2% as San Diego's pitching staff combined to hold Chicago scoreless across all nine innings.