Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles shut out the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-0 on February 25, 2024, at LECOM Park, holding Pittsburgh to three hits and capitalizing on two Pittsburgh errors while committing none of their own. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Pirates holding a 54% win probability at home, but that number fell steadily before reaching 0% by the final out, reflecting Baltimore's clean execution on both sides of the ball.

The decisive sequence began in the top of the seventh inning, when Enrique Bradfield Jr. delivered a single off Cam Alldred that shifted win probability by 19.6 percentage points in Baltimore's favor, providing the game's single largest swing. Pittsburgh's best threat came in the bottom of the sixth, when Nick Gonzales doubled off Luis González to move the needle 8.2 points toward the home side, but the Pirates were unable to convert. Baltimore reliever Ryan Long then took over and methodically neutralized Pittsburgh's late attempts, with a Sergio Alcántara flyout in the bottom of the eighth representing a 12.9-point swing against the Pirates and Gilberto Celestino's groundout to end the ninth adding another 14.4 points to Baltimore's column. Wandisson Charles also contributed by inducing a Jase Bowen lineout in the seventh that was worth 9.7 points on the probability chart.

Among individual performers, Gilberto Celestino posted the highest WPA among batters at plus-19.6%, while Bradfield Jr. finished at plus-17.2% with a RE24 of plus-0.9, and Tyler Nevin added plus-8.5% with a matching RE24 of plus-0.9. On the mound, Ryan Long led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-16.0%, followed by Charles at plus-9.7% and Isaac Mattson at plus-7.4%, a trio that collectively secured Baltimore's zeroes across the final three frames and completed the shutout.