Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Miami Marlins 6-3 on February 25, 2024, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, handing Miami a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening the day with a 54% pre-game home win probability for the Marlins. Washington scored all six of its runs across the fifth, sixth, and ninth innings, while Miami's offense managed single runs in the second, third, and seventh but never strung together enough to seriously threaten the Nationals' lead once it was established.

The two most consequential swings of the game came in back-to-back innings from Washington hitters. In the top of the fifth, James Wood connected on a home run off Devin Smeltzer that shifted win probability by +18.6 percentage points in the Nationals' favor. One inning later, Lewin Díaz delivered the game's single largest win-probability play, a home run off Calvin Faucher worth +21.4 percentage points, effectively putting the game out of reach. In the bottom of the seventh, Hunter Harvey managed to limit the damage when Tristan Gray struck out in a situation that swung 9.0 percentage points against Miami, though Bennett Hostetler briefly kept the inning alive with a fielder's choice that moved the needle 8.7 points the other way.

Díaz led all position players in WPA at +20.2 with a RE24 of +1.4, while James Wood posted the strongest run-environment contribution among hitters at +1.8 RE24 to go along with his +18.9 WPA. Troy Johnston also contributed meaningfully at +12.2 WPA and +1.0 RE24. On the mound, Amos Willingham was Washington's most valuable reliever by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, generating +13.3 WPA, with Luis Perdomo and Kyle Finnegan adding +6.3 and +6.0 respectively to close out the Nationals' six-run effort on 10 hits.