Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians handed the Seattle Mariners an 8-4 defeat on February 25, 2024, at Peoria Stadium, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mariners win from 54 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. Cleveland scattered its damage across two pivotal innings, plating three runs in the fourth and an explosive five more in the seventh to pull away from a game that appeared relatively competitive through the middle frames. Seattle finished with five hits and an error against Cleveland's cleaner eleven-hit, zero-error effort.

The decisive moments came with sharp swings in win probability. Austin Hedges got Cleveland moving in the fourth with a home run off Kirby Snead that added 14.8 percentage points to the Guardians' chances, and Will Brennan followed with another home run off Snead in the same inning for an additional 11.3-point shift. Seattle briefly answered with Dylan Moore's RBI single off Sam Hentges in the bottom half, a play worth 10.9 points in the Mariners' favor, but Cleveland shut that momentum down. The knockout blow arrived in the seventh, when Johnathan Rodriguez delivered a single off Holden Laws that represented the game's single largest probability swing at plus 27.1 points, followed shortly by Daniel Schneemann's single off Laws for another 11.3-point move that effectively closed out Seattle's chances.

Rodriguez was the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a net WPA of plus 23.8 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.9, while Hedges posted plus 14.0 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24. On the Seattle side, Moore was the lone bright spot at plus 12.6 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24. Cleveland's bullpen trio of Sean Poppen, Eli Morgan, and Brett de Geus each contributed positively to the pitching ledger, adding 7.1, 7.1, and 6.3 percentage points respectively to preserve the comfortable final margin.