St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the Houston Astros 3-0 on February 25, 2024, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, holding Houston scoreless across all nine innings while collecting nine hits and committing no errors. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Houston holding a 54% win probability at first pitch, but that figure fell steadily as St. Louis pitching dominated, ultimately reaching 0% by the final out. The Cardinals scored once in the third inning and added two more in the ninth, while the Astros finished with four hits and two errors.

The pivotal moment of the game came in the bottom of the eighth inning, where Houston's offense had its best opportunity to respond but was systematically shut down by Tink Hence. John Garcia's lineout off Hence swung win probability by -29.8% against the Astros, the single most damaging play of the contest, followed by Chad Stevens striking out for an additional -10.6% swing. A walk to Zach Daniels provided the only meaningful positive moment for Houston in that frame, adding +10.3% to their win probability, but it came to nothing. Earlier, Jesús Bastidas grounded into a double play in the sixth inning off Connor Thomas, a sequence that cost the Astros another 11.9 percentage points. On the offensive side, Alec Burleson's single in the top of the third off Bennett Sousa added 9.9% for St. Louis and helped ignite the game's first run.

Tink Hence was the standout performer of the night, generating +33.0% in win probability added from the mound, the highest figure on either side. Connor Thomas contributed +14.7% and Gordon Graceffo added +11.7%, making it a collective pitching effort that kept Houston without a run. Among Cardinals batters, Zach Daniels led with +10.3% WPA and a +0.6 RE24, while Joey Loperfido at +8.7% WPA and Jordan Brewer at +8.6% WPA rounded out the most impactful offensive contributors in a clean and efficient Cardinals victory.