Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handled the Los Angeles Angels 9-4 at Goodyear Ballpark on February 25, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked closely as it moved from a 54 percent pregame home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Cincinnati did its most decisive work in the third inning, when the Reds sent a wave of damage through the Angels' pitching that effectively ended the competitive portion of the afternoon.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Luke Maile delivered the game's most impactful play, a home run off Alan Rangel that shifted win probability by plus 19.1 percent in Cincinnati's favor. Bubba Thompson had set the table moments earlier with a double off Rangel that added 4.4 percent, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand reached on a hit by pitch for another 3.2 percent swing, all in the same inning as the Reds pushed across four runs. Los Angeles offered little resistance at the plate in key moments, with Miguel Sano's strikeout against Brandon Williamson in the top of the fourth costing the Angels 6.0 percent in win probability, and Livan Soto's lineout off Michael Byrne in the second representing another 4.6 percent loss. The Angels scratched together four runs across the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings, but the deficit was never threatened seriously.

Maile finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 18.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.8, while Thompson contributed plus 7.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9 to pace the Cincinnati offense. Edwin Arroyo added plus 3.4 percent WPA on the day. On the pitching side, Brandon Williamson led all arms with plus 7.9 percent WPA, followed by Michael Byrne at plus 4.6 percent and Julian Aguiar at plus 1.2 percent, as the Reds staff limited the Angels to seven hits while committing two errors alongside Cincinnati's own two miscues in a sloppy but ultimately decisive spring outing.