Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Oakland Athletics 5-1 at Hohokam Stadium on February 24, 2024, holding the home side scoreless after the third inning and pulling away with three runs in the top of the eighth. The DiamondIQ model opened with Oakland as a modest favorite at 54% pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as Colorado's pitching staff and a handful of decisive offensive moments swung the game decisively in the visitors' favor.

The pivotal sequence began in the top of the fifth, when Michael Toglia connected on a home run off Osvaldo Bido, a swing that added 12.3 percentage points to Colorado's win probability. Oakland answered with Esteury Ruiz's home run off Ty Blach in the bottom of the third, a play that represented the Athletics' best moment of the afternoon, adding 11.1 points to their win probability at the time. From there, Colorado systematically erased Oakland's chances. Jimmy Herron's single off Danis Correa in the top of the seventh proved to be the game's single largest positive swing, adding 13.0 percentage points and setting the table for the Rockies' decisive three-run eighth inning.

Herron led all players by WPA on the day, finishing at plus-18.5% with a RE24 of plus-2.0, reflecting his consistent contribution across his plate appearances. Toglia added plus-11.5% WPA, while Ruiz at plus-10.6% was Oakland's lone meaningful bright spot offensively. On the mound, Joey Estes paced Colorado's pitching staff with plus-11.1% WPA, followed by Victor Vodnik at plus-9.7% and Michael Kelly at plus-7.1%, the latter benefiting in part from Cole Carrigg's ground into a double play in the top of the sixth that cost the Rockies 7.5 percentage points and briefly stalled their momentum.