Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

Philadelphia topped Toronto 14-13 in a high-scoring spring training contest at TD Ballpark on February 24, 2024, a game that swung wildly before the Phillies held on for the one-run victory. The DiamondIQ model opened with Toronto as a modest favorite at 54% home win probability, but that figure ultimately bottomed out at 0% as Philadelphia secured the final out. The scoring was distributed unevenly across the game, with Philadelphia erupting for ten runs in the top of the fifth inning and Toronto answering with three in the bottom of the sixth, keeping the margin tight enough that the final frame carried real consequence.

The pivotal sequence came in the top of the fifth against Yosver Zulueta, where Weston Wilson's double shifted win probability by 20.0 percentage points and Johan Rojas followed with a triple worth an additional 17.4 points, providing the foundation for Philadelphia's decisive ten-run outburst. Toronto's most dangerous comeback moment arrived in the bottom of the ninth when Leo Jiménez grounded out against Tyler McKay, a play that paradoxically registered as the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus-31.6 points from the batting team's perspective, reflecting how much leverage had compressed into that moment with Toronto still threatening.

Among individual performers, Jiménez led all position players with a cumulative WPA of plus-30.7, despite his final at-bat ending the game, while Wilson finished at plus-22.8 with a RE24 of plus-2.9 and Rojas posted plus-18.6 WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 for his contributions in that pivotal fifth. On the pitching side, José Ruiz led Philadelphia's relievers with plus-13.3 WPA, aided significantly by Luis De Los Santos's strikeout in the bottom of the eighth that shifted win probability by 12.3 points in the Phillies' favor, with Andrew Bellatti and Zach Pop adding plus-8.8 and plus-4.8 WPA respectively as the bullpen closed it out.