Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs handed the San Francisco Giants an 8-4 defeat at Scottsdale Stadium on February 24, 2024, building a commanding lead through the middle innings before the Giants managed a four-run ninth that proved too little, too late. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving San Francisco a 54 percent chance of winning at home, but that probability eroded steadily and finished at zero as Chicago's offense did consistent damage against the Giants' pitching staff.

The Cubs' most decisive sequence came courtesy of Brennen Davis, whose combined WPA of plus-15.1 percent made him the game's most impactful bat. Davis opened his account in the second inning with a single off Logan Webb that shifted win probability by plus-7.6 percent, then delivered the knockout blow in the fourth with a home run off Erik Miller worth plus-7.8 percent — the single highest-leverage swing of the game. Patrick Wisdom added to the damage in the third with a double off Sean Hjelle that moved the needle plus-5.5 percent, finishing with a plus-4.9 percent WPA contribution overall. Matt Shaw also registered a plus-3.7 percent WPA despite a pop out in the second, reflecting the surrounding context of Chicago's sustained pressure against Logan Webb. San Francisco's best counter came from Heliot Ramos, but his second-inning groundout off Drew Smyly cost the Giants minus-6.8 percent in win probability, snuffing out a potential early rally.

On the mound, the Cubs' pitching staff was equally responsible for the outcome. Drew Smyly led all pitchers with a plus-11.9 percent WPA, while Ben Brown contributed plus-9.0 percent and Luke Little added plus-4.2 percent, collectively keeping San Francisco's lineup in check until the final frame. The Giants' two errors compounded their difficulties, and Chicago's clean defensive performance — zero errors across nine innings — helped the Cubs convert their early offensive advantage into a decisive spring training victory.