St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals handed the New York Mets a 10-5 defeat on February 24, 2024, at Clover Park, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for New York down to zero by the final out. St. Louis built its advantage in bunches, plating three runs in the third inning and four more in the fourth to take command of the game before the Mets could mount a meaningful response.

The third inning proved to be the pivotal frame. Luken Baker's single off Hunter Parsons swung win probability 15.0 percent in St. Louis's favor, and Lars Nootbaar followed with another single against Parsons that added another 11.3 percent, the two hits compounding the damage in what became the Cardinals' most consequential sequence of the afternoon. Thomas Saggese extended the lead in the fourth with a fielder's choice off Josh Walker that contributed a 7.8 percent swing. On the New York side, Tomás Nido's groundout in the second against Zack Thompson represented the Mets' costliest missed opportunity, costing them 6.1 percent in win probability at a moment when they still had a path back into the game.

Individually, Baker finished as the game's most impactful offensive contributor at plus 17.0 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24, with Nootbaar close behind at plus 11.3 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24. Saggese posted the highest RE24 among Cardinals batters at plus 3.1, reflecting the run-context value of his contributions. On the mound, Zack Thompson was the standout, posting a plus 12.1 percent WPA to pace the Cardinals pitching staff, with Adam Kloffenstein and Riley O'Brien each adding modest positive contributions in support.