Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves held off the Tampa Bay Rays 6-5 at Charlotte Sports Park on February 24, 2024, completing the victory after the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Tampa Bay win fell from a pre-game 54% probability to 0% by the final out. Atlanta built its lead early, scoring one run in the first inning and three more in the second, then added two in the fourth to establish the six-run total that ultimately proved sufficient. Tampa Bay chipped away with single runs in the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth innings, keeping the outcome in doubt deep into the game.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Kodi Whitley induced an Austin Shenton strikeout that swung win probability by +31.6% in Atlanta's favor and closed out the game. That play represented the single largest swing of the night, but it built on a pivotal sequence one inning earlier. In the bottom of the eighth, Ruben Cardenas drew a double off Jake Walsh that shifted win probability +15.0% toward Tampa Bay and briefly tightened the contest, though Niko Hulsizer's strikeout in that same frame off Walsh reversed course by -19.9%. Earlier, Greg Jones had launched a home run off Ray Kerr in the seventh for an +11.9% swing, representing one of Tampa Bay's more threatening sequences as the Rays mounted their late push.

Among the individual standouts, Austin Shenton finished with the highest WPA among position players at +27.0%, while Ruben Cardenas contributed +19.3% WPA and a +1.2 RE24. Marcell Ozuna added +12.3% WPA with a matching +1.2 RE24 on the offensive side. On the mound, Spencer Strider led all pitchers with a +17.4% WPA, aided in part by René Pinto's second-inning strikeout that shifted probability -11.2% against Tampa Bay. Jake Walsh and Brian Moran each contributed positively as well, finishing at +4.5% and +4.0% WPA respectively in support of the Braves' narrow win.