Houston Astros at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros jumped on Washington early and never looked back, defeating the Nationals 7-4 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on February 24, 2024. Houston scored in each of the first three innings, plating two in the first, four in the second, and one in the third to build a commanding advantage that the Nationals could never overcome. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Washington holding a 54% home win probability, but that figure eroded quickly as Houston's offense went to work against Joan Adon in the second inning, and the model ultimately settled the Nationals' chances at 0% by game's end.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the second, where Houston did its most significant damage. Victor Caratini's double off Adon added 7.6% to Houston's win probability, and David Hensley's strikeout drawn against Adon contributed 11.4%, reflecting how the Astros methodically worked through Washington's pitching. On the other side of the ledger, Nick Senzel's strikeout against Ronel Blanco in the bottom of the second was the single most impactful play of the game, swinging win probability 12.4% in Houston's favor and encapsulating how effectively Blanco was neutralizing the Nationals' lineup.

Hensley led all batters with a cumulative 16.0% WPA, while Carter Kieboom contributed 12.5% WPA and a solid 1.2 RE24. Caratini rounded out the top offensive performers with 7.8% WPA and a game-high 2.9 RE24. On the mound, Ronel Blanco was the standout, posting 20.7% WPA to lead all pitchers. Washington finished with more hits, 11 to Houston's 8, but committed two errors and could not convert that contact into runs, particularly late when Nasim Nunez's single and Dylan Crews' walk in the eighth briefly stirred momentum before Houston's relief corps closed the door.