Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-2 on October 4, 2023, at American Family Field, erasing a two-run Milwaukee deficit with a four-run sixth inning that effectively decided the contest. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Brewers a 54 percent win probability as the home side, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the sixth, where Arizona strung together three of the night's most consequential plays in rapid succession. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. singled off Abner Uribe to swing win probability 15.3 percent in Arizona's favor, and Tommy Pham followed with another single off Uribe worth 13.4 percent. Sandwiched between those moments was Corbin Carroll's double off Freddy Peralta, which added 14.1 percent to the Diamondbacks' win probability. That three-hit stretch, totaling more than 42 percentage points of combined swing, transformed a deficit into a commanding lead. Milwaukee mounted a brief threat in the bottom of the eighth when Mark Canha singled off Kevin Ginkel to nudge the Brewers' chances by 11.9 percent, but Andrew Saalfrank retired Willy Adames on a forceout that swung probability back 11.3 percent and neutralized the rally.

Andrew Saalfrank was the top pitcher on the DiamondIQ model's leaderboard with a plus-19.1 percent WPA, while Zac Gallen contributed plus-9.4 percent and Hoby Milner added plus-8.7 percent. Among position players, Christian Yelich led all batters with a plus-13.6 percent WPA and a 0.9 RE24, though it was Carroll and Gurriel who did the most visible damage in the sixth. Carroll finished at plus-13.5 percent WPA and 0.9 RE24, while Gurriel posted plus-12.5 percent WPA and topped all hitters with a 1.1 RE24.