Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies walked off the Minnesota Twins 3-2 in eleven innings on October 1, 2023, at Coors Field, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 63 percent pre-game road advantage into a final home win probability of 100 percent. Minnesota had carried a 2-1 lead into the eighth inning before the Rockies began their late comeback, and the game ultimately turned on a sequence of high-leverage moments in extra innings that swung the outcome decisively in Colorado's favor.

The two most consequential plays of the contest came in the final two half-innings. Sean Bouchard's home run off Jorge Alcala in the bottom of the eighth shifted win probability by 24.5 percent, knotting the game at two and keeping Colorado alive. Then, with the game still tied in the eleventh, Andrew Stevenson's groundout off Gavin Hollowell cost Minnesota 17.7 percent in win probability, while Willi Castro's groundout moments later paradoxically added 16.4 percent from the Twins' perspective as Colorado escaped without allowing a go-ahead run. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eleventh when Brendan Rodgers stole third base off Jordan Luplow, a single play worth 41.4 percent in win probability that set up the winning run and represented the largest swing of the entire game. Nolan Jones had given Colorado its first lead with a home run off Bailey Ober in the fourth, worth 11.3 percent.

Rodgers finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-28.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.2, followed closely by Bouchard at plus-24.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0, and Castro contributed plus-19.9 percent on the night. On the pitching side, starter Bailey Ober led all pitchers at plus-25.8 percent WPA despite surrendering the Jones home run, with Tyler Kinley adding plus-13.5 percent and Justin Lawrence contributing plus-7.4 percent in relief for Colorado.