San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres edged the Chicago White Sox 2-1 in eleven innings on October 1, 2023, at Guaranteed Rate Field, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 41 percent pre-game home win probability for Chicago and reducing it to zero by the final out. Neither team scored through the first nine innings despite both clubs collecting seven hits, setting up a tense extra-inning finish that ultimately swung on a handful of pivotal plate appearances in the tenth and eleventh frames.

The game's single biggest moment came in the bottom of the tenth, when Zach Remillard singled off Rich Hill to shift win probability by 51.6 percentage points in Chicago's favor, tying the game and giving the White Sox genuine life. That swing proved to be the largest individual play of the night, and Remillard finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 46.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.4. However, San Diego answered decisively in the top of the eleventh, as Jurickson Profar delivered a single off Declan Cronin that moved the needle 36.5 points toward the Padres, and an Eguy Rosario lineout added another 21.1 points to San Diego's win probability by advancing the situation. Chicago's half of the eleventh ended when Trayce Thompson struck out against Rich Hill, a play worth 19.0 WP points to the Padres as the final threat evaporated.

On the pitching side, José Ureña led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 33.9 percent, followed by Pedro Avila at plus 17.4 percent and Bryan Shaw at plus 13.5 percent, a collective effort that kept Chicago's lineup in check across a long, low-scoring night. Profar finished second among batters at plus 22.4 percent WPA, while José Azócar contributed plus 20.9 percent largely on the strength of a key strikeout in the top of the tenth that held Chicago's deficit at bay and registered a 17.7-point swing in San Diego's favor.