Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates blanked the Miami Marlins 3-0 on October 1, 2023 at PNC Park, with all three runs coming in a decisive eighth inning that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win from a nearly even pre-game probability of 49 percent all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Through seven innings the contest was locked in a scoreless stalemate, with the most damaging sequence on either side being Ji Hwan Bae's strikeout against Huascar Brazobán to close the seventh, a moment that shifted win probability 5.8 percent against Pittsburgh and reflected just how tight the game remained entering the final frames.

The eighth inning unraveled quickly for Miami reliever Bryan Hoeing, who surrendered three consecutive doubles that accounted for the entire margin. Miguel Andujar delivered the most impactful blow, his double carrying a win-probability swing of plus 19.7 percent and standing as the single biggest play of the game by that measure. Jack Suwinski followed with a double of his own at plus 10.9 percent, and Connor Joe extended the damage with another double worth plus 8.0 percent. Andujar finished as the top offensive performer by WPA at plus 11.0 percent, while Joe contributed plus 7.2 percent and Suwinski added plus 3.2 percent with the best RE24 among Pittsburgh hitters at plus 0.6.

On the mound, Pittsburgh's pitching staff was collectively dominant, holding Miami to just three hits and an error with no runs allowed. Ryan Weathers led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 28.5 percent, followed by Andre Jackson at plus 16.4 percent, who also induced a Yuli Gurriel groundout double play in the fourth inning that erased 6.1 percent of Miami's win probability. Osvaldo Bido contributed plus 13.4 percent, and the trio combined to keep the Marlins completely off the scoreboard until Pittsburgh's offense provided all the separation it needed.