Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers closed out a 4-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs on October 1, 2023, at American Family Field, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming as pre-game home win probability of 59 percent climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out. Milwaukee did its most decisive damage early, plating three runs in the bottom of the first inning and adding one more in the sixth to make the outcome a formality well before the final pitch. Chicago managed five hits but crossed the plate zero times, never threatening to shift momentum in a game that belonged to the Brewers from the opening frame.

The biggest single swing in win probability came in the opposite direction, as Miles Mastrobuoni's groundout in the top of the second inning off Adrian Houser cost Chicago 5.9 percent win probability, representing a missed opportunity to respond to Milwaukee's early surge. On the Brewers' side, Tyrone Taylor's sixth-inning home run off Tyler Duffey added 5.7 percent win probability and pushed Milwaukee's cushion to its final margin. Taylor was also a factor earlier, as his strikeout in the bottom of the first and Carlos Santana's strikeout in the second each added 3.9 percent win probability from Milwaukee's perspective, reflecting how thoroughly the Brewers controlled the at-bats that mattered most.

Taylor finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 7.8 percent, while Santana contributed plus 3.5 percent despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.2. Willy Adames added plus 1.3 percent WPA and led all batters with a RE24 of plus 0.6. On the mound, Adrian Houser was the dominant force with a model-leading plus 20.2 percent WPA, suppressing Chicago's lineup deep into the game. Andrew Chafin contributed plus 6.6 percent out of the bullpen, and Daniel Palencia added plus 5.0 percent to close things out cleanly for Milwaukee.